It appears increasingly likely that from early October through the beginning to end of November (depending on which chart you look at) Tesla, Apple, Bitcoin, AMD, and Nvidia (and I’m sure several other high-risk names) put in blow-off tops. The rally that we saw from last Tuesday through this past Monday is now looking like a textbook bear-market rally.

Each of these stocks viewed as a microcosm look very similar to the markets of 1929, 1987, and 2000 right before they crashed. Even though I’ve been bearish on the indices I do believe that if these names collapse over the coming weeks it will almost certainly take the rest of the market down with it, given the concentration of cash in these names.

The market has been very top-heavy. I’ve been asking myself for over a year, what will finally put a bullet in the risk appetite that people have currently, and I am starting to think a collapse in these extremely speculative names could be just the recipe.

If history is any guide, by the way, I would expect the heavy selling to come over the next few weeks. In 1929, the crash phase lasted eight weeks. In 1987 it was about seven. 2000 was longer but the market was also much more elevated than it is now. I would expect all of these names to come down anywhere from 30-50% if a collapse occurs which I wouldn’t rule out.

Why am I acting so sure about a seemingly improbable event? Because of the nature of blow-off tops and the resulting collapse that almost always occurs. Also we are at the full on delusion phase of the Tesla bubble. The narrative from that camp has gone from hopeful to wildly insane. We need this correction to restore common sense and order to these markets though it will cost a lot of people massive gains.

From a price standpoint, a bull would have hoped for yesterday’s pause to resume to the upside but a premarket bid for all of these names quickly collapsed and now they are all pretty solidly red. The risk reward to shorting these right now is as good as I have seen it maybe ever.